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What happened last night:

• Pacers 112 – Knicks 104 (@ Indiana)
  The Pacers outscored the Knicks 40-17 in the fourth quarter to earn the victory and in doing so, moved into the third spot in the Eastern Conference standings. If the season ended right now the Hawks would face Indiana in the first round of the playoffs.
• Heat 99 – Sixers 93 (@ Miami)
  LeBron scored 41 points as the Heat clinched their spot in the 2012 playoffs. Meanwhile, Philly falls a game and a half behind the Hawks and the Celtics with the loss.
• Pistons 102 – Magic 95 (@ Detroit)
  Orlando dropped its fourth straight game, falling to the fifth seed (fourth best record) in the Eastern Conference.

With so many possible outcomes still available to the Hawks, it is always good to have some serious number crunchers on hand. Here on the Hawks Blog we have always relied on SportsClubStats.com for our in-depth analysis of playoff odds, etc. Here is a breakdown of where the Hawks could finish based on their record in the remaining 12 games:

CLICK HERE FOR MORE ANALYSIS FROM SportsClubStats.com

Another resource that uses numbers way above most of our heads is ESPN’s John Hollinger. He is a frequent visitor to the Highlight Factory and breaks down nearly every facet of NBA basketball with statistics and probabilities. For his “Daily Playoff Odds” he runs the remaining schedule through the computer 5,000 times to churn out the most likely results. Right now he has the Hawks finishing in a three-way tie with Orlando and Indiana at 39-27. CLICK HERE for his complete breakdown.

]]> http://hawksbasketblog.com/2012/04/04/clearing-up-the-playoff-picture-4-4-12/feed/ 4 http://hawksbasketblog.com/2012/04/03/clearing-up-the-playoff-picture-4-3-12/ http://hawksbasketblog.com/2012/04/03/clearing-up-the-playoff-picture-4-3-12/#comments Tue, 03 Apr 2012 19:43:09 +0000 Jon Newberry http://hawksbasketblog.com/?p=1445 Heading into Tuesday night’s NBA action there is an exciting battle for playoff positioning taking shape in the Eastern Conference.

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With such a tight race involving so many teams, almost every night will feature at least one game with playoff implications. Here on the blog we will provide a daily update on the standings, what games to watch, and where to find the best analysis about the Hawks’ position.

First off, here are the important games on the schedule tonight:

• Knicks @ Pacers – 7 pm
  The Knicks are currently holding on to the 8th and final playoff spot, but they aren’t far away from the Atlantic Division lead (2.5 games behind Boston) or missing the playoffs altogether (2 games ahead of Milwaukee). Meanwhile, the Pacers are in a similar position as the Hawks, trying to avoid slipping into a 7th or 8th seed and setting their sights on a top-4 record and home court advantage.
• 76ers @ Heat – 7:30 pm
  If the season ended today this would be the 2 vs. 7 match-up in the Eastern Conference.
• Magic @ Pistons – 7:30 pm
  Orlando is trying to stop a three-game losing streak.

With so many possible outcomes still available to the Hawks, it is always good to have some serious number crunchers on hand. Here on the Hawks Blog we have always relied on SportsClubStats.com for our in-depth analysis of playoff odds, etc. Here is a breakdown of where the Hawks could finish based on their record in the remaining 12 games:

CLICK HERE FOR MORE ANALYSIS FROM SportsClubStats.com

Another resource that uses numbers way above most of our heads is ESPN’s John Hollinger. He is a frequent visitor to the Highlight Factory and breaks down nearly every facet of NBA basketball with statistics and probabilities. For his “Daily Playoff Odds” he runs the remaining schedule through the computer 5,000 times to churn out the most likely results. Right now he has the Hawks finishing in a three-way tie with Orlando and Indiana at 39-27. CLICK HERE for his complete breakdown.

That’s it for the first edition of “Clearing Up the Playoff Picture”… Check back tomorrow for updated standings and analysis.

The Hawks appeared to be dead in the water at least three different times on Wednesday.

First, they dug a 16-point hole early in the second quarter after allowing Cleveland to score 36 points in the first, the most allowed by Atlanta in the opening period this season. The Hawks looked lethargic and there was no indication that they would be able to turn things around.

“We allowed them to get off to a fast start,” Coach Drew said after the game. “Our defense was non-existent. We didn’t put up any resistance.”

Then, all of a sudden, the Hawks closed the half with a 28-11 run fueled by 10 points from Josh Smith and 8 points from Jerry Stackhouse. The run put Atlanta up 53-52 at halftime, and they continued to play well in the third quarter, increasing the lead to 72-64. Cleveland then fought back with a run of their own, scoring the final nine points of the quarter to re-take the lead.

The second time it looked like the Hawks were finished was at the end of regulation. The Hawks trailed by just one-point with 26.7 seconds remaining and the Cavaliers with possession. Coach Drew elected not to foul and Cleveland’s Kyrie Irving scored with just over five seconds remaining to increase the lead to three points.

Joe Johnson had hit a huge three to give the Hawks a lead with just over a minute remaining, and Larry Drew set up a double-screen that got him free for an open look from the top of the key.

“It was just a great play that Coach drew up,” Joe said after the game. “Fortunately for us, it worked. I got a great look. I just tried to set the ball right in my hand, and I got it off, got a great look, and it went down for me.”

So the Hawks extended the game for five more minutes, but with 1:27 remaining in they found themselves with their backs against the wall again, trailing by six points.

Joe responded with another big shot from behind the arc, the Hawks got a big stop on defense, and then Josh Smith completed an old-fashioned 3-pt play to tie the score. That set the stage for one more clutch shot from Joe to seal the victory, and Atlanta’s theft of a game that looked lost on three occasions was complete.

Playing without starting center Al Horford AND without “Mr. Kryptonite” himself, Jason Collins, the Hawks could have rolled over on Friday night and accepted defeat. Not this year’s team. Led by Josh Smith, Atlanta came out aggressive and played scrappy and physical the entire night to earn the 89-87 overtime win.

Following a similar script to last season’s wins in Orlando, the Hawks sacrificed offensive production and a quicker pace to wear down the Magic and their All-NBA center, Dwight Howard. In fact, this was the first time this year that Atlanta posted a victory despite scoring less than 90 points… and they even had an extra five minutes of action to increase their point total.

In analyzing the win, you have to start with Smith.

“I just took what the defense gave me tonight,” Josh commented after the game. “I wanted to be efficient down low on the block. I wanted to be able to help down there on the rebounds with Dwight. Just wanted to be able to come out there and put my best foot forward.”

His “best foot” included 23 points, 19 rebounds, five assists and three blocked shots. When asked to comment on J-Smoove’s performance, fellow forward Marvin Williams didn’t have much to say.

“When you get a statline like that, it speaks for itself.”

One Hawk whose stat line might not jump out at you, but had a big impact on the game was Zaza Pachulia. With Horford and Twin inactive and newly acquired Erick Dampier only available for limited minutes, Pachulia was tasked with containing Dwight Howard by himself for most of the game. Big Z is usually one to make full use of his fouls, but without the luxury of a deep frontcourt he had to pick his moments tonight. The result was a solid night on both ends of the court, helping to force Howard into committing five turnovers and finishing with nine points and 10 rebounds.

It was far from a two-man show for the Hawks on Friday night, as they received contributions from many angles. Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams each scored four points in overtime to help lead to victory. Jeff Teague and Tracy McGrady combined for 12 points in the second period when Atlanta’s offense stalled for a bit.

The result was a big win that should build on the momentum that was gained from Wednesday’s home win over the Pacers. It is momentum that the Hawks will need as they host the Heat on Sunday before embarking on a five-game road-trip that crosses has the team playing on each coast.

Last week the Hawks let a big lead slip away against the Bulls in Chicago, right before the start of a stretch of three games in three nights. Then they lost to the Heat in triple overtime at home on Thursday. Then, after getting into Charlotte at 3am, they needed overtime to beat the Bobcats on Friday night.

At the end of a physically and mentally draining stretch of games, the Hawks chemistry was surely going to be tested against the Bulls on Saturday night. The blowout win helped Atlanta pass with flying colors. (Note: the final margin of 15 points did not do justice to explain how much the Hawks dominated this game. Check out a full explanation from the AJC’s Michael Cunningham.)

Re-watch the highlights from Saturday night (if you haven’t watched them yet, where have you been?) and keep an eye on the Hawks bench. As the Hawks are exploding on their 18-2 run to end the first half the bench might even be more active than the players on the floor. The only team to play nine games in their first 12 days of the season is jumping around and joking with each other like kids that only have 30 minutes of recess to get rid of all their energy.

My personal favorite was when Joe broke Deng’s ankles to end the half. Focus in on T-Mac. McGrady (894 career games) grabs Ivan Johnson (5 career games) and wrestles with him while turning away, as if to say, “Don’t watch. That’s not right to treat someone’s ankles like that.”

Here is a zoomed-in view courtesy of Fox’s X-MO:

Some great examples that were not visible on the highlights:

- The Hawks bench standing up in unison before Vlad even releases the ball on his fifth 3-pointer of the night.
- Josh Smith with some creative towel movements to celebrate another ‘And-1′ from Ivan Johnson in the second half.
- Everyone at the Highlight Factory loved seeing dunks by both Zaza Pachulia and Jason Collins on the same night.

Yes, it is only one win. But at the end of nine games in 12 days, to get a blowout win like this that has everyone feeling good about their game is huge with this year’s condensed schedule.

AP Recap – Box Score – Photo Gallery - Highlights

The Hawks handed the Heat their first loss of the 2011-12 season and improved their own record to 4-1 by posting a 100-92 win in Miami on Monday night. Tracy McGrady, now in his 15th season in the NBA, may not have the athleticism he had when he entered the league as a teenager, but on this night he showed that he can still knock down the 3-ball in clutch situations.

Atlanta executed Larry Drew’s game plan extremely well through the first three quarters, save for a few spurts where they let the Heat get out in transition for easy baskets. In the halfcourt the Hawks forced Miami to settle for perimeter shots with a mix of zone defense and more switching on ball screens than they typically employ. To keep the Heat from getting out in transition the Hawks had solid shot selection and only committed nine turnovers in the game.

All of the Hawks efforts set them up for a clutch fourth quarter by McGrady. T-Mac played all 12 minutes of the final period, scoring 13 of his 16 points while hitting all three of his attempts from behind the arc. For good measure, he added five rebounds and four assists to help Atlanta turn a four-point deficit into an eight-point win.

Joe Johnson also hit a big 3-pointer in the fourth quarter, helping him finish with a team-high 21 points, while Al Horford added 16 points and nine rebounds. Jeff Teague had another solid game at point guard, consistently breaking down Miami’s defense and getting into the paint while taking good care of the ball. Jeff hit six of his first seven shots while scoring 13 of his 15 points in the first half to keep the Hawks within striking distance.

LeBron James finished with a game-high 28 points and Chris Bosh added 19, but the Hawks did a great job of keeping Dwyane Wade out of the lane and settling for jumpers. Wade had 10 assists and scored 12 points, but he shot just 4-of-17 from the field.

The real story of the game was the clutch play from McGrady. With the condensed schedule and T-Mac’s injury history the Hawks shouldn’t plan on counting on these kind of heroics every night, but I think tonight proved that he still has plenty left in the tank to make a big contribution this season. He is definitely not afraid of stepping in to take the big shots.

GAME NOTES FROM HAWKS PR:

– On the strength of 21 points from Joe Johnson and a solid 16 off the bench from Tracy McGrady, the Atlanta Hawks knocked off the previously unbeaten Miami Heat, 100-92 Monday at the AmericanAirlines Arena.

–The win was Atlanta’s fourth in five games, and dropped Miami to 5-1.

– Al Horford also finished with 16 and Jeff Teague turned in a smooth, 15-point, five-assist and four-steal night.

– The Heat led by as many as 10 early, and took a 23-19 lead after one.  Atlanta narrowed the margin at the half, behind Teague’s 13 first half points, 50-47.  The Hawks took advantage of nine Miami turnovers, converting them into 14 points.

– Atlanta trailed by four heading into the final quarter (71-67), and completely dominated the home team in the fourth, outscoring them 33-21.  The Hawks shot 60% in the fourth, making 9-of-15 FGs and held the Heat to 37 percent shooting.

– McGrady had 13 of his 16 points in that crucial fourth, drilling three three-point FGs.

– Atlanta wraps up this three-game road trip Tuesday at Chicago at 8 ET (Sportsouth HD, NBA TV, 680 AM and 93.7 FM).

At times the Hawks got sloppy during Wednesday night’s home opener at the Highlight Factory, but don’t let that take away from the times that they looked like a well oiled machine poised to step into the “contender” category that is so coveted in this league.

For the second time in as many games the Hawks came out firing. They raced out to an 11-0 lead behind 3-pointers from Teague, Williams and Johnson. Their ball movement was immaculate, with players making the extra pass to get an even better look at an open shot. The game tightened in the second quarter, but Atlanta never appeared to be threatened the rest of the night.

As a unit, the starters were lights out tonight. Each of their point differentials (+/-) were better than +22.
- Marvin Williams turned in another strong performance, scoring 17 points and grabbing eight boards while playing strong inside.
- Al Horford and Josh Smith each posted double-doubles while blocking four shots combined. They convincingly outplayed the Wizards young frontcourt that features Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee.
- Joe Johnson got off to a scorching start, hitting his first three shots from behind the arc. He continues to play an excellent all-around game.

The Hawks did lose their focus in stretches, committing careless turnovers and settling for too many jump shots. That focus will be tested again on Friday when they host New Jersey, the team that they drubbed by 36 points on the road.

One of the more intriguing options is a “BIG” lineup that features McGrady, Johnson, Vladimir Radmanovic, Horford and Jason Collins/Zaza Pachulia. McGrady has been used as a point-forward in the past and is capable of bringing the ball up the court on offense, while Johnson was often called on to guard the other team’s point guard when he played alongside Mike Bibby the last few years. With this lineup the Hawks would create some huge match-up problems for the other team’s backcourt and give Al a bigger advantage on the boards as well. Check out the sizes compared to league averages:

(Note: I know Joe is listed at 6’7″, but he plays a lot bigger than that at the 2. Other SG’s around the league may be similar in height, but they are not built like Joe… think Rudy Gay and/or Brandon Roy.)

Joe and T-Mac are able to draw double-teams with standard match-ups, but they will be immediate if they have 4-6 inches and/or 20-30 pounds on their defender. That means open looks for Horford (who was deadly from 15-18 feet for much of last season) and Radmanovich (who has made a living at the 3-point line).

There is no guarantee that LD will ever use this lineup, but it would be interesting to give it a try in one of the preseason games against the Bobcats.

The other end of the spectrum is probably one that you will see somewhat often this season. Let’s call it the “QUICK” lineup.

The core of the Hawks’ lineup this year, on paper, seems built to run. Coach Drew has acknowledged that he is encouraging players to push the ball more that Jeff Teague is the starting point guard. With the traditional starting lineup with Al at center and Josh at power forward, the Hawks sacrifice size but gain a big advantage with speed. Horford can outrun any big man in the league and Smoove is faster and more athletic than nearly every 4. Tweak the lineup a little bit to sub in the speedy Pape Sy for Marvin Williams and the Hawks resemble the Phoenix Suns from ’04-’05 when they averaged over 110 ppg.

Like I said before, LD has options. Look for the tinkering of the rotation to continue into the season since the preseason schedule only includes two games this year.

** – The league averages were pulled from The Bassline Spin‘s numbers from last season. They used the starting lineups from April 8, 2011, (24 of 30 teams were in action) to come up with their averages. It is not the most scientific or exact, but it will suffice for the purpose of this posting.

JOE JOHNSON –
Joe is serving as the Honorary Chairman of Arkansas Baptists Church’s HoopJams this weekend in Little Rock. Joe grew up playing in a similar event in Arkansas called Hoop Fest, and views his appearance at the competition as a good way to give back.

“It’s a chance to give back a little and show my appreciation for what the state and the city of Little Rock have done for me,” Johnson told Lindsey Millar of the ArkTimes.com.

AL HORFORD –
Horford definitely has a busy summer planned and is currently on the opposite side of the globe making appearances for the NBA in China. Al is scheduled to promote Tsingtao Beer (an NBA China partner) and possibly participate in a community event or two. Track all of his activity by following his Twitter feed: @Al_Horford.

Once Al is back stateside he is going to host two youth basketball camps in late June. One will be held in Atlanta at Emory University from June 25-26, and the other will be in Lansing, Michigan, from June 28-29.

JOSH SMITH –
Smoove is also spending some time abroad, working with the NBA’s 5 United Tour. Josh will be making at least two appearances in Spain this month and will join other NBA stars Dwight Howard and Derrick Rose in supporting the tour.

Smoove also has a camp scheduled for this summer (July 8-10) here in Atlanta.

JEFF TEAGUE –
Jeff Teague is hosting a pair of camps in the burbs around Atlanta next week. The first one is at Salem H.S. in Conyers, and the second is at Wheeler H.S. in Marietta.

DAMIEN WILKINS -
Wilkins recently visited the “Star Student” at a local elementary school. (Click Here to watch the video) He is scheduled to join Teague tonight at the Buckhead Bottle Bar (owned by teammate Zaza Pachulia) for a NBA Finals viewing party and Hawks Appreciation event (invitation only).

ZAZA PACHULIA -
Speaking of Big Z, Pachulia will be appearing at the Hawks Youth Basketball Camp early next week at Life University. Zaza is extremely excited for the end of the summer though, when he will lead his native Republic of Georgia in their first-ever appearance in the European Basketball Championships (Aug. 31 – Sept. 18, 2011).

JOSH POWELL –
Powell recently joined up with fellow Atlanta native Dwight Howard and his D12 Foundation to help families in Birmingham and Tuscaloosa whose homes were damaged by this Spring’s tornadoes.  The duo then had a light-hearted moment as they headed for home: rap video.

Keep up with all of JP’s charitable activity on Twitter @jp21reasons.

“We have to do things with energy,” said Al Horford following this morning’s shootaround. “That’s something that needs to be there all the time. We just have to do a better job collectively as a team.”

“It’s basically just energy and effort,” echoed Joe Johnson. “Putting forth the effort and making the mindset that we need to box our guys out and also, us guards getting down there, helping our bigs rebound the basketball.”

One way that Larry Drew is looking to help balance out the rebounding totals is by increasing the minutes of Jason Collins and Zaza Pachulia. Collins brings some added size against the Bulls’ frontcourt and Pachulia always brings energy and effort that helps frustrate Joakim Noah and his assult on the offensive glass.

Still, the Hawks know that it will take a total team effort to win the battle of the boards against this Chicago team.

“They’re just hard workers,” said Horford. “Deng always goes under the radar in the things that he does. Rose, he tip-dunked one in the other day after his own miss. Nobody had a chance to react. They’re rebounding from all different positions.”

MORE ON GAME 5
Handling the double-teams:
Joe – “I know in order for us to be successful as a team I have to score the basketball. If I have to press the issue at times I’m gonna do that. Like I said, I’m gonna try to be as aggressive as possible.”
Jamal – “Just doing what the play dictates, you know. If you get two people on you, you have to find the open man and hope that we finish and take advantage of it. That way they won’t do it. The times where they’re not two people, that is when you have take advantage and go one-on-one or whatever it is you feel like you have to do. Besides that, you just have to play the game. Sometimes try to test it and see how far they go with it.”